The possible future development of a market for PEM fuel cell road vehicles A SD based analysis within an EC funded project

Hydrogen fuel cells are increasingly seen as the propulsion technology of the future for road transport. However, despite the potential of this technology to reduce the environmental impact of road transport and to improve energy efficiency, both technical and economic barriers need to be overcome for it to be successfully introduced in mass markets. At Imperial College we are currently undertaking an analysis of the possible future dynamics of the PEM fuel cell market for road transport in Europe. This study is part of an EC-funded, Integrated Project involving 18 partners from both industry and academia; this allows extensive interaction with key market players. This paper presents a dynamic simulation model which addresses all main feedback loops influencing the market introduction of PEM fuel cells in road transport applications in Europe, with a particular emphasis on modelling the effects of cumulative production and R&D on technology attributes.